town Calculated Risk on 11/24/2022 11:28:00 AM
Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago)
1) The Unemployment Rate is Near 50 Year Low
The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the highest since the Great Depression).
The unemployment rate is down from 4.6% a year ago (October 2021).
2) Low unemployment claims.
This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average.
3) Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP is much lower than during the Housing Bubble
This graph shows household mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP.
Mortgage debt is up $1.46 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percentage of GDP is at 48.9%, down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust.
4) Mortgage Delinquency Rate at Lowest Level since at least 1979
This graph, based on data from the MBA through Q3 2022, shows the percentage of loans delinquent by days past due. Mortgage delinquencies were at the lowest level since the MBA survey started in 1979.
Note: The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).
The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process increased year-over-year in Q3 with the end of the foreclosure moratorium.
5) Household Debt burdens at Low Levels
This graph, based on data from the Federal Reserve, shows the Total Debt Service Ratio (DSR), and the DSR for mortgages (blue) and consumer debt (yellow).
This data suggests aggregate household cash flow is in a solid position.
Happy Thanksgiving to All!